Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-11-02 1.952758 2.044828 2.142603 2.254852 2.381045 2.519631 2.684907
2025-11-09 1.843139 1.959910 2.088423 2.242098 2.423351 2.633753 2.901985
2025-11-16 1.767417 1.899514 2.048601 2.232281 2.457015 2.729785 3.097992
2025-11-23 1.705899 1.848398 2.012396 2.219313 2.480242 2.809314 3.277181
2025-11-30 1.667997 1.820996 2.000322 2.231791 2.532510 2.926952 3.520138
2025-12-07 1.602222 1.756343 1.938794 2.177303 2.492471 2.915507 3.574003
2025-12-14 1.562601 1.721023 1.910759 2.162533 2.502093 2.971021 3.733933
2025-12-21 1.523271 1.684103 1.878545 2.139758 2.498121 3.005253 3.863573
2025-12-28 1.508648 1.676692 1.882522 2.163861 2.559415 3.139746 4.184052
2026-01-04 1.500586 1.676766 1.895509 2.200028 2.639717 3.311556 4.612942
2026-01-11 1.475960 1.654822 1.878796 2.194265 2.657735 3.385558 4.871691
2026-01-18 1.457643 1.640142 1.870760 2.199711 2.692284 3.490086 5.224883
2026-01-25 1.423297 1.604615 1.834880 2.165622 2.666183 3.491392 5.354896
2026-02-01 1.399834 1.582381 1.815798 2.154322 2.674394 3.553804 5.655617
2026-02-08 1.378817 1.562629 1.799223 2.145602 2.685684 3.622716 6.002656
2026-02-15 1.357968 1.542459 1.781307 2.133916 2.691069 3.680821 6.347888
2026-02-22 1.346692 1.534435 1.779469 2.145494 2.734966 3.819199 7.028173
2026-03-01 1.314514 1.497994 1.737556 2.095610 2.672778 3.736202 6.898908
2026-03-08 1.296312 1.479736 1.720277 2.082110 2.671558 3.779332 7.269827
2026-03-15 1.276400 1.458763 1.698664 2.061215 2.656389 3.791449 7.532380
2026-03-22 1.271876 1.458188 1.705322 2.083425 2.717090 3.975448 8.723975
2026-03-29 1.271079 1.462514 1.718856 2.116677 2.799891 4.226143 10.779200
2026-04-05 1.258095 1.450002 1.708119 2.111409 2.812227 4.312184 12.044331